New Mexico’s 14 federally recognized tribes and pueblos reported a combined $266 million in “adjusted net win” for the fourth quarter of 2025, the figure cited in the recent federal lawsuit four NM tribes filed against the prediction-market platform Kalshi. That’s the strongest tribal gaming quarter on record, and it frames the economic stakes behind the lawsuit.
What “adjusted net win” means
“Adjusted net win” is the gaming term for revenue from gaming machines minus the value of prizes paid out and certain regulatory fees. It is the closest proxy to actual casino take-home revenue from Class III gaming. New Mexico’s quarterly figures from 2025 paint a consistent picture:
- Q1 2025: $219+ million in adjusted net win across all NM tribal casinos
- Q4 2025: $266+ million
The state of New Mexico received over $20 million in general fund revenue from tribal gaming during Q1 2025 alone, under the revenue-sharing terms of the 2015 Class III gaming compacts that run through 2037. The compacts tier the state’s share by casino size, typically falling in a range from roughly 8% to 16% of net win.
Why the headline number matters
Two reasons the Q4 figure is being widely cited in 2026:
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It quantifies the stakes. When tribes argue in federal court that prediction-market platforms like Kalshi “siphon revenue” from tribal gaming, the $266M quarter is the size of the pie being protected. Even a small percentage diversion to unregulated online platforms represents tens of millions of dollars annually that would otherwise flow to tribal services and the state’s general fund.
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The mix is shifting. Roughly the same 14 tribes and five tribal sportsbooks are generating the revenue, but national operator partnerships — most notably BetMGM at Isleta Resort & Casino since November 2023 — have lifted both visitor counts and per-visit handle at participating books. The Q4 jump suggests the BetMGM-style partnerships are working in retail, even though New Mexico still does not permit any legal online or mobile sports betting.
Inn of the Mountain Gods carries the Mescalero economy
Among individual properties cited in 2025 testimony, Inn of the Mountain Gods on the Mescalero Apache Reservation generated over $15 million in Q1 2025 alone. For the Mescalero, the casino is the tribe’s sole source of revenue outside federal and state grants — particularly important as the adjacent Ski Apache resort has lost business as snowpack has declined. That financial concentration explains why the Mescalero have been the loudest tribal voice on offshore and prediction-market operators.
The litigation context
These figures appeared prominently in two 2025–2026 events:
- July 7, 2025: Mescalero Apache Vice President Duane Duffy presented the revenue context to a New Mexico legislative committee meeting at Inn of the Mountain Gods, warning lawmakers that Kalshi and similar platforms were operating outside the tribal compact framework. Read more →
- May 12, 2026: The Mescalero Apache and pueblos of Pojoaque, Sandia, and Isleta cited the Q4 2025 figure in a federal lawsuit alleging Kalshi’s prediction-market platform violates IGRA and the 2015 compacts. Read more →
The figures are also relevant policy data for any future legislative debate. New Mexico legislators have considered — but not advanced — bills to legalize statewide mobile sports betting since HB 101 failed in 2021. Future bills would have to reconcile commercial mobile-operator interest with the size of the existing tribal gaming base and the compact provisions that govern revenue sharing through 2037.